In Arizona Senate Race, Good News for Republicans

Contest with Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly is now a toss-up, according to two election forecasters
By John Johnson,  Newser Staff
Posted Oct 27, 2022 5:15 PM CDT
One Key Senate Race No Longer Tilts to Democrats
This combination of photos shows Arizona Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters, left, and Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., before a debate in Phoenix on Oct. 6, 2022.   (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

Another closely watched race in the upcoming midterms has shifted in the direction of Republicans. The Cook Political Report on Thursday moved the Senate race in Arizona from "lean Democrat" to "toss-up," and Politico did the same in its own forecast. The race features Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly trying to fend off conservative GOP challenger Blake Masters, and Democrats are particularly worried because Kelly has been outspending Masters by a 2-1 margin, reports the Hill.

CPR explained its shift by saying that private and public polls show the race has tightened considerably. Politico notes that the shift further improves GOP chances of taking back control of the Senate, with its forecast now listing five toss-up races—the others on its list are Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. For the record, the site FiveThirtyEight.com still has Kelly with a 73% chance of winning. (The Cook website also shifted a notable House seat in the GOP's direction this week.)

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