As of Monday afternoon, the fate of next year's House remained up in the air. However, the New York Times reports that Democrats' hopes of keeping majority control appear to have dimmed over the weekend. In particular, they missed targets in Arizona and California districts, writes Nate Cohn. "The sometimes good—but not good enough—results for Democrats raised the bar for what the party needs in the votes yet be counted, while making a late surge seem even less likely." President Biden, meanwhile, predicted his party would fall short, reports Politico.
"I think we’re going to get very close in the House," the president said Monday. "I think it’s going to be very close, but I don't think we’re going to make it." Still, the counting continues, and it's not a done deal. That it's even close—and that Democrats will keep the Senate—has defied most predictions, with filmmaker Michael Moore being a notable exception. "I never doubted it—there was no way the Republicans were going to have some kind of landslide," Moore tells the Guardian. (And, yes, Moore made his prediction public before Election Day.)
"We've won seven of the last eight elections in the popular vote, we’ve got more registered, we have a new crop of young people every year, plus the fact that 70% of eligible voters are either women, people of color, or 18- to 25-year-olds, or a combination of the three," he says in explaining his forecast. “That’s the Democratic party’s base." He adds that pollsters were wrong in asserting that voters had moved on from their anger after the overturning of Roe v. Wade and that voters were primarily concerned not with crime or inflation but "their democracy." (Read more 2022 midterms stories.)