In Russia, One Big Question: What Now?

A stunning if short-lived rebellion against Russia and Vladimir Putin began and ended over the weekend. Now, Monday brings far more questions than answers on what happens next. Examples:

• Where is Prigozhin? Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has not made a public appearance since he stopped his tanks en route to Moscow on Saturday. He is supposed to be heading to Belarus permanently after that country's leader reportedly brokered a deal to end the rebellion, but it's not clear if that happened. So why did Prigozhin turn against Putin? "Military infighting, financial pressures and personal political ambitions" all played a role, as the Wall Street Journal explains.
• Where is Putin? The Russian leader also has not made a public appearance since his brief TV address on Saturday denouncing the then-in-progress rebellion by Prigozhin, notes the New York Times. A consensus in coverage is that Putin has been seriously weakened by the crisis. And as the BBC notes, his current presidential term ends next year. The weekend has raised the previously unthinkable possibility that Putin might not stand for re-election, perhaps at the urging of his own advisers. However, the analysis also points out the obvious: that Putin is the master of "political survival."

• Where is Shoigu? One key Russia figure has appeared in public, sort of: The Kremlin released video early Monday of defense chief Sergei Shoigu visiting troops in Ukraine, reports NBC News. However, it wasn't clear when the the video was shot. Shoigu is in the spotlight because Prigozhin had demanded that he be fired. Both the Times and NBC see the airing of the footage as a sign the Kremlin is trying to convey stability.
• Will the deal last? Whether the truce between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group can hold is an understatement to say the least, and skepticism abounds. "I can't see this peace lasting," Bob Seely, a member of the British Parliament who has been investigating the Wagner Group for two years, tells the Washington Post. "Because either Prigozhin is unstable and will continue to attack and seek to finish Putin off, or Putin will silence him in some way—financially, politically or physically."
• Will it change the war? The Wagner Group has done much of the heavy fighting on Russia's behalf in Ukraine, so Prigozhin's break with Moscow would appear to be a great benefit to Ukraine. Much remains uncertain, but the thinking for now is that Ukraine's ongoing counter-offensive should get a lift, per the AP. "This is going to give the Ukrainians a real boost," says James Nixey of Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia program. "If we've been saying that the Ukrainians do have a lot to fight for, they have been lacking a little bit in morale of late."
• Context: "Think about it this way: 16 months ago, Russian forces were on the doorstep of Kyiv in Ukraine, believing they would take the capital in a matter of days and erase the country from the map as an independent country," Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Meet the Press Sunday. "Now, what we've seen is Russia having to defend Moscow, its capital, against mercenaries of [Putin's] own making."

(More Russia rebellion stories.)