The way the 2024 race is shaping up, a rematch between former President Trump and President Biden looks like a smart bet. With polls suggesting that lots of Americans aren't happy about that potential choice, a nonprofit group called No Labels continues to generate attention. As the Wall Street Journal reports, the group bills itself as a centrist alternative to both parties and is currently trying to qualify for the ballot in every state. No Labels says it will run a third-party candidate, but only if it decides that such a candidate would have a viable chance. (Joe Manchin has not ruled out the possibility of running on the ticket.) The prospect has Democratic and liberal groups alarmed because they see such a campaign ending in only one way: a victory for Trump.
"It is a spectacular combination of hubris and irresponsibility at a level that I have trouble even believing," Lincoln Project co-founder Rick Wilson tells the newspaper. "They've made a financial and personal decision to destroy Joe Biden." At the New Republic, Tori Otten looks at the history of third-party candidates and draws a similar conclusion: "If No Labels persists, it could end up giving Trump an easy win." In an essay at the Hill, however, No Labels co-founder David Walker says the talk about the group becoming a spoiler that works in favor of Trump is off base.
"They continue to ignore the fact that No Labels has made it clear that it will not offer a third option if there is no path to victory in the Electoral College," he writes, adding that the decision won't be made until next spring. "No Labels has the ability to pull the plug on a third option several months before the election if the path to victory evaporates." The group says any such candidate would draw from both Republicans and Democrats, though an analysis at FiveThirtyEight suggests the group is dramatically overestimating its chances.
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"First and foremost, the share of the electorate made up by independent moderates isn't large enough to win a presidential election," writes Geoffrey Skelley. "Secondly, despite distaste for Biden and Trump, each remains well-liked by his party, reducing the potential draw of a No Labels candidate." The Journal notes that the 13-year-old group is not legally obligated to name its donors and describes it as "mysteriously funded." (One of its prominent backers to go public is billionaire Harlan Crow, most recently in the news for his close relationship with Clarence Thomas.)
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