American officials say there's no doubt that funding from Iran helped make the Hamas attack possible—but the surprise attack on Israel may also have been a surprise to Iranian leaders. The New York Times, citing "US officials and another official in the Middle East," reports that intelligence shows Iranian officials who would generally be aware of operations tied to its Quds Force—"Iran's paramilitary arm that supports and works with proxy forces"—were not aware of the attack, suggesting Tehran was not directly involved. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Tuesday that Iran was "complicit" in the attack but no intelligence pointing to direct involvement has been collected.
"We've said since the beginning that Iran is complicit in a broad sense because they have provided the lion's share of the funding for the military wing of Hamas, they've provided training, they have provided capabilities, they have provided support," Sullivan said. Matthew Levitt, a former senior counterterrorism official, says Hamas couldn't be a "fraction of the group that it is ... without Iran's financial support, provision of weapons, and training," NBC News reports. The State Department believes Iran provides Hamas with around $100 million a year, along with expertise in areas like rocket-building.
Levitt says he doubts evidence of Iran giving Hamas direct orders to conduct the operation will surface. "That's just not how these things work," he says. More than 1,200 Israelis were killed in the attack, with the count continuing to rise as Israeli soldiers find the bodies of massacred men, women, and children in communities near the Gaza border. Iddo Moed, Israel's ambassador-designate to Canada, tells Politico that he believes Iran was directly involved. He notes that the leader of the Quds Force held meetings in Lebanon in August with the leaders of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah. The Times notes the US "regularly track[s] and monitor[s] meetings" between Quds Force honchos and groups like Hamas. (More Israel-Hamas war stories.)