Biden May Need a Trump Conviction to Triumph

Polls continue to deliver bad news to President Biden, most notably one from the New York Times showing predecessor Donald Trump ahead in five battleground states. A look at related coverage:

• Risk for Trump: Yes, the takeaway numbers are bad for Biden, given that Trump is doing so well despite 91 felony charges. But the New York Times notes that its polling also suggests that if the former president is convicted and sentenced in any of the cases against him, enough current supporters might turn against him to hand Biden victory in 2024. Specifically, the polls suggest about 6% of Trump voters in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin would switch to Biden. That could be enough to tilt the election.

• Risky gamble? The Biden campaign is publicly shrugging off the polls, saying they're notoriously unreliable more than a year from an election. But Axios reports that Democrats are indeed getting worried about how to turn things around. "Biden is all-in on betting his base voters will return once they see the likely side-by-side choice of Biden vs. Trump in the general election," reads the assessment. "At this point, there's no other bet to make."
• Reason for worry: The editorial board of the Wall Street Journal sees the results as a "five-alarm Biden reelection Fire" for Democrats. Yes, the election is a year away, but this poll and others are beginning to make clear that Biden is in "perilous reelection shape." The board suggests Biden should seriously consider stepping aside if he truly wants to help his party.
• Reason not to worry: At CNN, Dean Obeidallah agrees the numbers are brutal for Biden, especially among Black and Hispanic voters, as well as among those under 30. But the polls also suggest Biden has time to reassemble this coalition, particularly as people become more focused on the election. He notes that in November 2011, prominent Democrats were calling for then-President Obama to step aside for Hillary Clinton because they were certain Mitt Romney would beat him.
• Young voters: The headline on an op-ed at the Times from pollster John Della Volpe of the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School could not be clearer: "Joe Biden Is in Trouble." Della Volpe's focus is on how voters ages 18 to 29 are moving away from Biden, most recently because they view the US-backed Israeli response in Gaza as disproportionate. Instead, they're looking to alternatives such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or Cornel West. Unless Biden wins them back with "bold leadership that prioritizes caring for the most vulnerable, including making real progress toward a state of Palestine side by side with a strong, democratic Israel," this contingent of voters could sink him in the election.

(More Election 2024 stories.)