New Report Holds a 'Predominantly Negative Outlook for the World'

Two-thirds of risk specialists see an "elevated chance of global catastrophes" in the next decade. Nearly a third predict the same within the next couple of years. That's according to the World Economic Forum's annual risk survey, which is being widely painted as "gloomy" and "pessimistic." For the first time in the Global Risks Report's near-20-year history, misinformation and disinformation are viewed as the greatest threats over the next two years, above climate change and war, per CNBC. As Reuters reports, 2024 will be "the biggest election year in history," with 3 billion voters heading to the polls in the US, India, and other countries. "There's a fear we'll see much more [false information spreading]," aided by artificial intelligence, said WEF managing director Saadia Zahidi, per CNN.

Misinformation and disinformation could "undermine the legitimacy of newly elected governments," according to the report released Wednesday, which warns "resulting unrest could range from violent protests and hate crimes to civil confrontation and terrorism." In the short term, extreme weather events are viewed as the second major threat, followed by societal polarization, cyber insecurity, interstate armed conflict, lack of economic opportunity, inflation, involuntary migration, economic downturn, and pollution, per CNBC. AI potentially plays a role in some of these areas—for example, in allowing cyber criminals to complete complex tasks quickly and more easily, says report co-author Carolina Klint, chief commercial officer for Europe at professional services firm Marsh McLennan, per CNN.

Over the next decade, extreme weather events, critical change to Earth systems, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, natural resource shortages, misinformation and disinformation, and adverse outcomes of artificial intelligence are ranked as major threats in the order listed. The report is based on survey responses from 1,490 risk experts who were asked to estimate the likely impact of 34 global risks by severity in the five weeks prior to Oct. 9. The results "highlight a predominantly negative outlook for the world in the short term that is expected to worsen over the long term," the WEF said in a statement. "World leaders must come together to address short-term crises as well as lay the groundwork for a more resilient, sustainable, inclusive future," Zahidi said, per CNBC. (More World Economic Forum stories.)