A Small Fraction of Voters to Decide the 2024 Winner

In one view, '6% of voters in just 6 states'
By John Johnson,  Newser Staff
Posted May 6, 2024 11:15 AM CDT
A Small Fraction of Voters to Decide the 2024 Winner
President Biden, left, and former President Trump.   (AP Photo)

The election is six months away, and a new national poll has some unsurprising news: President Biden and former President Trump are deadlocked at 37% each, reports USA Today. Its poll with Suffolk University also found that 8% back Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and another 5% back a third-party candidate such as Cornel West or Jill Stein.

  • Swing states: Of course, the real focus of the race is on the swing states, and the Cook Political Report has six in the "toss-up" category—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Many outlets, including the AP, lump North Carolina in with those six as the critical ones. For now, Cook has the state in the "lean Republican" category. A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll in April had Biden up slightly only in Michigan, and trailing Trump in the other six.

  • Most important? Axios reports that strategists in both parties think it all might boil down to Pennsylvania, one of the three crucial "Blue Wall" states Biden is attempting to lock down. The other two in that "wall" are Wisconsin and Michigan. More broadly, the analysis suggests that "6% of voters in just six states" may decide the winner.
  • Demographic trends: The USA Today poll found that Biden's numbers are improving with voters 35 and younger, where he now leads 34-25, and with Black voters, where's he up 64-12. Trump still holds a 27-26 lead among independent voters, though the numbers are trending in Biden's favor.
  • Gaza's sway: Business Insider notes that Gaza is gaining importance as an issue as Biden attempts to navigate US support of Israel and the worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza. It's dividing Democratic voters in particular—especially younger ones—and "could very well decide the outcome of the election."
(More Election 2024 stories.)

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