Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes could be key to winning the White House in November—and it's currently neck and neck between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, according to one of two major polls. The candidates are in a statistical tie in the state, with 48% of likely and registered voters favoring Harris and 47% favoring Trump, according to the Washington Post poll. The poll also found that enthusiasm is high, with 78% of registered voters saying they're "extremely motivated" to vote, and 93% saying they'll definitely vote. Trump's narrow win in Pennsylvania in 2016 made him the first GOP candidate to win the state since George HW Bush in 1988. Biden narrowly won the state in 2020.
A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll puts Harris further ahead of Trump in the state. The poll of likely voters put Harris at 50% to 46% for Trump. It found that Harris has regained ground Biden lost among Democratic voting blocs, including Black voters and young people.
- Both polls involved around 1,000 voters in the state and were conducted in the days after last week's presidential debate in Philadelphia. In the Post poll, 54% of those who watched the debate said Harris won, 27% said Trump won, and 17% said neither candidate won. In the Times/Inquirer/Siena poll, 67% said Harris did well and 40% said Trump did well.
- A national Times/Siena poll found that Harris and Trump are tied among likely voters at 47% each. Nate Cohn at the Times says that since poll averages show Harris doing better nationwide than in Pennsylvania, the results are a "bit of a puzzle." But if you focus only on "higher-quality" polls, Cohn writes, many show Harris doing "relatively poorly nationwide, but doing well in the Northern battleground states." The polls suggest Trump's "advantage in the Electoral College, relative to the popular vote, has declined significantly since 2020," writes Cohn, the paper's chief political analyst.
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