Papal Conclave Could Deliver a 'History-Making Moment'

Many names have been thrown about in discussions about the next pope, but a few frontrunners are emerging in the leadup to the papal conclave early next month.

• Americans: USA Today names two American contenders: Cardinal Joseph Tobin, 72, the archbishop of Newark, New Jersey, is a "fierce advocate for immigrants" in line with Francis' progressive teachings. Cardinal Raymond Burke, 76, is a conservative formerly of the St. Louis Archdiocese who frequently clashed with Francis and views homosexuality as a deviation.
• Asia and Africa: But with the number of Catholics surging on two continents, the stage may be set for "a dramatic, history-making moment": the first election of a modern pope from Asia or Africa, Axios reports, noting Cardinal Luis Tagle of the Philippines, 67, and Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana, 76, are among the top contenders, both considered more moderate than Francis.

• Prediction market: Polymarket is betting on the Vatican's long-serving secretary of state, Cardinal Pietro Parolin of Italy, age 70, who is "an expert on Asia," per the New York Times. He gets a 37% chance of becoming the next pope, with Tagle at 32%, per the Daily Beast. At Oddschecker, both Parolin and Tagle have a 40% chance.
• Curse of the frontrunner: CNN gives reason to doubt betting markets, noting the frontrunner doesn't always come out on top. As the saying goes, "He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal." "And the field of candidates is wide open thanks to Pope Francis' reforms," making cardinals of bishops from previously overlooked places like Tonga and Haiti.
• A Black pope?: There are some hopes that the conclave might choose a Black pope from Africa, per the BBC. But this could mean a break from Francis' teachings as "the Catholic hierarchy in Africa is among the most conservative," per the Times.
• Age: The conclave won't necessarily choose a younger pope with more years to dedicate to the church. As CNN reports, the last two conclaves chose older popes "to ensure shorter pontificates." Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio became Pope Francis at age 76.

See our list of other possible contenders here. (More Pope Francis stories.)