For First Time on Record, Panama's Ocean Fails to Flip

For the first time in at least four decades of record keeping, the annual upwelling event in the Gulf of Panama, on Panama's southern coast, was a no-show in 2025. This process, typically driven by northern trade winds each dry season (between December and April), brings cool, nutrient-rich water from the ocean depths to the surface, supporting robust fisheries and offering a thermal buffer to coral reefs. Locals also count on this upwelling to keep Pacific beach waters refreshingly cool during the summer months. This year, however, scientists documented an unprecedented absence of upwelling, meaning the usual seasonal temperature drops and productivity surges in the region were notably missing, according to new research from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI).

The researchers attribute the event to weakened trade winds, a change they link to broader climate disruptions, though they say more work is needed to pinpoint the exact causes and to assess the long-term implications for local fisheries. The study, published Tuesday in PNAS, points out that tropical upwelling systems are not only vital for ecosystems and coastal economies but are also under-monitored globally. Researchers say the event highlights the growing vulnerability of essential oceanic systems as climate variability intensifies, with potential consequences for communities dependent on these waters. They also emphasize a need for better observation and forecasting tools. "This is a wake-up call," STRI oceanographer Carlos A. Rodriguez tells the BBC.