ADP Gives Us a Sense of What Happened in October

With the October jobs report all but certain to not materialize on Friday due to the shutdown, a meaningful outside data point: Payroll processor ADP on Wednesday said America's private sector added 42,000 jobs in October, besting expectations of 22,000 fresh jobs and an improvement from September's revised 29,000 lost jobs. The ADP report, which excludes public sector jobs, has become a key resource for economists and policymakers while the Bureau of Labor Statistics remains sidelined. CNBC describes the October numbers as "providing some hope that the labor market isn't in danger of sinking"; the Wall Street Journal sees it as offering "some reassurance that the labor market remains stable."

NBC News cites ADP chief economist Nela Richardson as noting that while private employers returned to adding jobs in October for the first time since July, the hiring pace was modest compared to earlier in the year. Job gains in October were concentrated in trade, transportation, utilities, education, and health services. While CNN reports that the 6,000 jobs shed in leisure and hospitality were outpaced by the 17,000 information jobs lost and 15,000 professional and business services jobs lost, Richardson sees the leisure and hospitality dip as "the most concerning trend ... because that points swiftly back to the consumer and how healthy and resilient the consumer will be."

Manufacturing shed 3,000 jobs, while construction added 5,000. Large companies with more than 500 employees grew their payrolls by 73,000, but smaller and midsize firms—where the majority of Americans work—continued to cut jobs. "Three in four workers in the United States, approximately, work in a smaller firm with head count under 250, so seeing weakness and softness there is a concern when you think of the US labor force population in its entirety," Richardson said, per NBC.