Norway Polar Bears Defy Gloomy Predictions, for Now

Study shows Svalbard bears are gaining weight even as sea ice retreats
Posted Jan 30, 2026 10:01 AM CST
Norway Polar Bears Defy Gloomy Predictions, for Now
This July 2012 photo provided by Polar Bears International shows polar bears near Svalbard, Norway.   (Katharina M Miller/Polar Bears International via AP)

Polar bears aren't supposed to be putting on weight as Arctic ice retreats—but the bears in Svalbard, Norway, are doing just that. It seems that the Svalbard bears are adapting to the new conditions surprisingly well, though the gains may be short-lived, reports the New York Times. One example of what's happening: Seals have become easier to hunt because they're forced to congregate on smaller patches of ice. "I think what this shows is (the bears) need less sea ice than we thought," Norwegian scientist Jon Aars tells CBS News.

For the study in the journal Scientific Reports, Aars and his team tracked nearly 800 polar bears on the remote archipelago between 1992 and 2019, a span in which the number of ice-free days increased by 100. "When I started, if you asked me what do you think will happen, I would assume they would be struggling and they would get leaner, skinnier, and maybe you would see effects on reproduction and survival," says Aars. "That was wrong." The population has remained stable at about 2,650, and the animals are generally in robust condition. Another adaptation: Many bears are also spending far more time on land—up to 90% of their time, in some cases—where they're increasingly feeding on different types of prey such as reindeer and even walruses.

The outlook isn't unambiguously upbeat, however. The study does not project how the Svalbard population will fare as warming continues and perhaps takes a bigger toll on sources of prey. "There will be a line, and when it's crossed, we will see polar bear starting to lose weight and getting more problems surviving and reproducing," says Aars, adding that the timeline is unclear. For now, however, these particular bears have shown an ability to adapt.

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