Democrats Who Vote 'No' May Be Vulnerable

Some House Democrats could be in a pickle when it comes to reelection this year if they don’t vote for the health care reform bill this week, writes Nate Silver. He’s identified 10 who might face primary challenges based on their ambivalence about the legislation, pressure from activist groups in their blue districts, and short time in the chamber.

Silver picks out one each from Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and New Jersey, and no fewer than 6 from New York at FiveThirtyEight. And New York “has a very late filing deadline,” as well as “a lot of mobilizing infrastructure.” So what’s going to happen? Silver isn’t so sure about the legitimacy of the threat of primary challenges, but Dems can be sure that their constituency won’t sit idly by. The “influence of the kill-the-bill crowd” has eroded, and should it fail, “Democrats will be out for blood.” (More Nate Silver stories.)