prediction markets

(Newser) - Polymarket, the betting market that drew attention by correctly predicting a win by Donald Trump in the 2024 election, is now earning new headlines for a stickier reason. The New York Post reports that early Wednesday, the FBI raided the Manhattan residence of CEO Shayne Coplan, with a source telling...

(Newser) - The self-proclaimed "world's largest prediction market" is going big on a Donald Trump win this election cycle, based on what the Wall Street Journal calls a "mystery $30 million wave of pro-Trump bets" that have proliferated in recent days. The paper reports that at the start of...

(Newser) - Opinion polls have a spotty track record when it comes to predicting political events, Paul Parsons writes in the Telegraph. He recommends a clearer crystal ball: futures markets, such as the University of Iowa’s Electronic Market. Functionally the same as a financial market, IEM allows individuals to bet between...

(Newser) - An enterprising start-up thinks it knows how to pick the next Da Vinci Code or "Friends," the Economist reports: virtual stockmarkets. MediaPredict.com lets volunteers use play money to bet on the success of a book manuscript, TV pilot, or opening-day take, and hopes the wisdom of crowds...