These Dates, Figures Might Decide Presidency

For starters, the last unemployment report is out Nov. 2: analysts
By John Johnson,  Newser Staff
Posted Aug 10, 2012 11:48 AM CDT
These Dates, Figures Might Decide Presidency
President Obama talks to supporters during a campaign rally at Colorado College in Colorado Springs, Colo., Thursday.   (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

We've got three months to go before the election, and political gurus Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik lay out some potential game-changers in the presidential race in the Wall Street Journal:

  • Sept. 7, Oct. 5, Nov. 2: The dates of the remaining unemployment reports. The last one in particular should resonate into the final weekend. Also to watch: The GDP report out Oct. 26, and Obama will be hoping it's better than the 1.5% mark of the second quarter.
  • 26%: That's the proportion of the 2008 electorate made up of minorities. Because Mitt Romney will probably beat John McCain's mark of getting 55% of the white vote, Democrats are pressed to top that 26% figure.
  • Aug. 27-30: The dates of the Republican convention, and a strong performance by Romney could give him a "durable bounce" in the crucial swing states. Because Obama is a known entity, the Democratic convention the following week is "largely unimportant."
Click for the full column, which notes that the debates could be significant, but Romney's VP pick probably won't be. (Read more Election 2012 stories.)

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