Republicans in Danger of Losing Senate

Cook Political Report also shifts Florida from toss-up to 'leans Democratic'
By Newser Editors,  Newser Staff
Posted Jul 24, 2020 1:36 PM CDT
Roughly 100 Days Away: Where the Election Stands
In this March 17, 2020, file photo, "I Voted" stickers sit on the table for voters at a church in Evanston, Ill.   (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File)

This weekend marks the point where the US will start counting down the last 100 days to the election. So where do things stand? An analysis at the Cook Political Report finds that, as of now, things are looking grim for Republicans. Not only does Joe Biden have a sizable lead and Democrats remain on track to expand their House majority, but it appears that Republicans are in danger of losing their last "firewall"—control of the Senate. Coverage of that and more:

  • Senate: "At this point, a net gain of five to seven seats for Democrats looks far more probable than the one- to three-seat gain that would leave them shy of a majority," writes Jessica Taylor. Arizona, Colorado, and North Carolina are the most vulnerable for the GOP, followed by Maine. But things also are a little iffy in Montana, Iowa, Georgia, Kansas, Texas, Alaska, and South Carolina. Overall, this isn't just shaping up to be a "perfect storm" for Democrats, but "perhaps a perfect tsunami."

  • Big picture: ABC News has 279 electoral votes "as either solidly or leaning Democratic," more than the 270 required for victory. The story notes that President Trump won Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan in 2016, and Biden has a chance to take back all three for Democrats. All are in the lean-Democrat category. On the flip side, if Trump wins any of them, he'd be within striking distance of victory.
  • Florida shifts: In recent elections, this state pretty much defined the word "toss-up," but the Cook Political Report on Friday shifted it to "[leans] Democratic" in the presidential race. "If things on the coronavirus front start to improve," the president may be able to regain ground, writes Amy Walter. "For now, however, Trump is the underdog."
  • Florida, II: The Hill cites two polls showing Biden with a lead ranging from 6 to 13 points in Florida, and the story lays out how Trump is "pulling out all the stops" in the state, including changing his address to Palm Beach.
  • White voters: At the New York Times, Nate Cohn points out a big trouble spot for the president: "Remarkably, Mr. Trump's lead among white voters has all but vanished," he writes. "On average, he holds just a three-point lead among them, 48 percent to 45 percent, across an average of high-quality telephone surveys since June 1. His lead among white voters has steadily diminished since April."
(More Election 2020 stories.)

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