Democrats Are Losing Paths to Take Control of Senate

Maybe the second biggest national election result out of Tuesday will be whether Republicans retain control of the Senate. The math is simple: Republicans now control the chamber 53-47, meaning Democrats would need a net gain of three seats if they win the White House (because of the vice president's tie-breaking power) or four seats if President Trump wins re-election. Polls gave Democrats a decent chance, but early results on Tuesday (including Lindsey Graham's victory) suggested Republicans could fend them off. Newser will follow the lead of the AP on calling races. A total of 35 seats are up for grabs, including special elections in Arizona and Georgia. As of close to 5am Eastern, the AP was reporting Democratic hopes for Senate control were fading. Some key races to watch, per Fox News:

• Alabama: Democratic Sen. Doug Jones lost to Republican Tommy Tuberville, flipping a seat for Republicans.
• Arizona (special election): GOP Sen. Martha McSally lost to Democrat Mark Kelly in the race to fill the seat once held by John McCain.
• Colorado: Democrat John Hickenlooper defeated GOP Sen. Cory Gardner, flipping a seat for Democrats.
• Georgia: GOP Sen. David Perdue vs. Democrat Jon Ossoff
• Georgia (special election): GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler will face Democrat Raphael Warnock in a runoff election in January.
• Iowa: GOP Sen. Joni Ernst prevailed against Democrat Theresa Greenfield.
• Maine: GOP Sen. Susan Collins defeated Democrat Sara Gideon, the AP confirmed Wednesday.
• Montana: GOP Sen. Steve Daines prevailed against Democrat Gov. Steve Bullock.
• North Carolina: GOP Sen. Thom Tillis vs. Democrat Cal Cunningham.
• South Carolina: GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham defeated Democrat Jaime Harrison.
• Texas: GOP Sen. John Cornyn defeated Democrat MJ Hegar.

In other races, Democrat incumbents won in Virginia, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Illinois, Delaware, New Jersey, Illinois, Oregon, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. GOP incumbents prevailed in Mississippi, Oklahoma, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Idaho, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Kentucky, where Sen. Mitch McConnell won a seventh term. In Tennessee, an open seat was won by Republican candidate Bill Hagerty. The GOP's Cynthia Lummis won another open seat in Wyoming. Democrat Ben Ray Lujan won an open seat in New Mexico. See NPR's live updates here. (More Election 2020 stories.)