How Obama Could Get Gored

Observers are speculating about a split decision in November, with John McCain winning the presidency while Barack Obama takes the popular vote—and Harry Siegel, in Politico, says the chances might not be that slim. Obama looks likely to build massive margins in coastal states (already safely Democratic) while making inroads in Republican bastions—though not enough for an Electoral College flip.

McCain could win the likes of North Carolina and Indiana by slimmer margins than George Bush in '04, and Bob Barr's candidacy—coupled with the lack of social wedge issues—may drive down GOP numbers in traditionally red states. An Obama popular margin of about 4 points would ensure Electoral College victory, one observer says; a 2- or 3-point popular edge makes President McCain “plausible.” (More Barack Obama stories.)