Maritime nations agreed Friday to slash shipping industry emissions to net zero by about 2050 in a deal that several experts and nations say falls short of what's needed to curb warming to agreed temperature limits. Countries at the meeting of the United Nations' International Maritime Organization in London, seen as key to curb global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times, signed a deal for shipping emissions to reach net zero "by or around" 2050. The less firm deadline took into account "different national circumstances." The plan also calls for shipping emissions to be slashed by at least 20% but aiming for 30% by 2030 and at least 70% but working toward 80% by 2040 despite a push from Pacific nations—backed by Canada, the United States, and the UK—for more ambitious targets.
Experts calculate the industry must cut its emissions by 45% by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050 to keep on track with the 1.5 C goal. As the AP reports, IMO Secretary-General Kitack Lim said Friday the deal "is in many ways a starting point for the work that needs to intensify even more over the years and decades ahead of us." Environmentalists are unhappy with the agreement, which doesn't set 2050 as a hard date for net zero emissions or keep in line with the warming limit set in the Paris Agreement. "There is a clear disparity between (the IMO's) goals and those set by the Paris Agreement's crucial 1.5 C target—a divergence that we can ill afford," said Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy at Climate Action Network International.
One analysis suggests both the less and more ambitious interim targets would see the shipping industry use up its carbon budget—a calculation of the amount of carbon dioxide various industries and countries can emit before global warming limits are breached—by early next decade. "We do not have the time to wait for regulation or alternative fuels to catch up," said Diane Gilpin, founder and CEO of Smart Green Shipping. Shipping currently accounts for almost 3% of greenhouse gas emissions, per the IMO. A European Parliament report warned that share could increase dramatically by 2050 if steps aren't taken to reduce the sector's reliance on fossil fuels.
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A decision on a shipping levy on carbon emissions to help invest in cleaner fuels and technologies and support developing countries' green ambitions was deferred. A rep for the International Chamber of Shipping, which represents 80% of the world's commercial fleet, said the group "greatly welcomes the ambitious agreement," but urged the IMO to agree to the group's proposal of a voluntary levy on emissions. Some environmentalists are supportive of a levy, but say the ICS proposal hampers more ambitious ideas. The IMO's previous target was for the shipping industry to cut its emissions by at least half from 2008 to 2050.
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