France as We Know It Looks Set to Change

France's National Rally surged into the lead in the first round of legislative elections, according to results released early Monday, bringing the far-right party to the brink of power and dealing a major blow to President Emmanuel Macron's centrists in an election that could set the country, and Europe, on a starkly different course. What's to know:

• By the numbers: Marked by high turnout of nearly 68% that reflected the high stakes (the New York Times notes the 2022 figure was 47.5%), voters handed Marine Le Pen's National Rally about 33% of the vote. The number includes the votes from a group of conservative candidates of the Republicans party, who'd allied with the far-right party in the first round. The New Popular Front, a leftist alliance, finished second with about 28%. The president's centrist group came in third with around 20%, according to figures released by the Interior Ministry.
• Timeline: There remains another torrid week of campaigning before the decisive final voting on Sunday, and whether the National Rally will be able to win an outright majority and form France's first far-right government since World War II remains uncertain.

• The last-minute scramble: Horse trading began Monday, with some efforts to block far-right candidates taking shape. The leftist coalition said it would withdraw its candidates in districts where they arrived in third place in order to support other politicians opposed to the far right. Macron's centrist alliance also said some of its candidates would step down before the runoff.
• In the event of a win: Should Le Pen's party win a commanding legislative majority, the party's young leader, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, would become prime minister—and force him and Macron into an awkward power-sharing arrangement. Macron, first elected in 2017, has said he won't step down before his second term expires in 2027.
• Promises: If the National Rally is able to form a government, it has vowed to dismantle many of Macron's key domestic and foreign policies, including taking a more confrontational approach to the EU and stopping French deliveries of long-range missiles to Ukraine. At home, the party's plans include the rollback of Macron's pension reform that raised the retirement age.

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• What's possible I: The Times reports it's tough to predict a fairly accurate parliamentary seat tally after the first round of voting. "But the National Rally now looks very likely to be comfortably the largest force in the National Assembly, the lower house of Parliament where most power resides, although not necessarily with an absolute majority." It would need 289 seats to do so; polling puts it in the 240- to 310-seat range. The BBC reports that should the horse trading succeed and result in a split Assembly, the party's hands would be fairly tied in terms of its ability to legislate.
• What's possible II: Politico reports "France will be in uncharted waters" should the National Rally win that majority on Sunday. "The country would be governed, at least in part, by politicians who made their names sympathizing with Vladimir Putin while vowing to rip up the European Union, wage war on migration, and quit NATO. Although Le Pen's party has softened some of its sharper-edged positions, it remains deeply skeptical of Western mainstream political positions." It also says a win now would greatly improve Le Pen's shot of succeeding Macron in 2027.

(More France stories.)