Nate Silver: Democrats Are Sunk With Biden

"You don't need another pundit telling you that [President] Biden should quit the race," writes stats guru Nate Silver in the New York Times. Instead, Silver suggests Democrats listen to what the polls are saying—and they are saying Biden should quit the race, he writes. Silver isn't talking about post-debate polls. He cites "remarkably consistent" data from polls showing that Democratic candidates for Congress in swing states outperform Biden, and Silver sees this as a "silver lining" for the party. "Voters in these polls like Democratic candidates for Congress just fine. More than fine, actually: It's Mr. Biden who is the problem." In short, Biden was in trouble before the debate—Silver had him with a 35% chance of winning—and now he's in even deeper trouble.

What to do? Silver suggests Democrats stage a truncated nomination process, maybe with two or three debates coupled with straw polls across the country to give delegates at the convention enough information to pick a plausible substitute. (Silver personally would lean toward a swing-state winner such as Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer or Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.) But above all, Democrats must do something, he writes. "Poker players like me ... understand the importance of working with incomplete information," he writes. "And they understand that sometimes doing nothing is the riskiest plan of all." Read the full column. (One report says Biden's lapses appear to have gotten worse in recent weeks.)