One Big Question Looms for Lebanon

The two-week Israeli bombardment of Lebanon intensified in a significant way on Monday: An overnight bomb struck a residential building in central Beirut, the first known Israeli attack in the capital since Israel and Hezbollah fought in 2006, reports the New York Times. Three Palestinian militants were reported killed.

• Big question: Is Israel preparing the way for a major ground invasion? That's the major question now in play, according to an analysis in the Wall Street Journal. Israel may be trying to soften up Hezbollah defenses ahead of a ground assault, one that would allow it to establish a buffer zone on the border to stop Hezbollah attacks. How far would they go into Lebanon? How long would they hold it? All unclear. What is clear is that an invasion "would be highly provocative in the region."
• Signs: Both the Times and the Journal says Israel has been launching smaller-scale ground incursions over the border in recent days to identify tunnels and gather intelligence. "We will mobilize all our capabilities," Israeli defense chief Yoav Gallant said Monday, not exactly quashing speculation. The Times reports no decision has been made.

• The progress: Israeli bombs appear to have devastated Hezbollah, killing leader Hassan Nasrallah and other top officials. On Monday, acting leader Naim Kassem warned in a televised address that the group is ready to repel a ground invasion, per the AP. "The battle could be long," he said. The AP finds it all but impossible to get an accurate read on things. "It's possible that Hezbollah is holding back to save resources for a bigger battle," it notes. "But the militant group might also be in disarray after Israeli intelligence apparently penetrated its highest levels."
• Big picture: Before Kassem spoke, Hamas said that an Israeli airstrike in Lebanon killed its leader there, per Reuters. All of this is "part of a conflict also stretching from the Palestinian territories of Gaza and the occupied West Bank, to Yemen, Iraq and within Israel itself," the story notes. "The escalation has raised fears that the United States and Iran will be sucked into the conflict."

(More Israel stories.)