The United Nations Environment Programme is expanding on what we already know: The world is set to surpass its key climate target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius within the next decade. In its annual Emissions Gap Report released on Tuesday, the agency points to sluggish action by countries on cutting greenhouse gas emissions as the main reason for missing the goal outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement. "This will be difficult to reverse—requiring faster and bigger additional reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to minimize overshoot," the UNEP said. Lead report author Anne Olhoff told Reuters that deep emissions cuts could slow down when the overshoot happens, "but we can no longer totally avoid it."
Under the Paris Agreement, nations committed to keeping temperature rise well below 2C and ideally to 1.5C above preindustrial levels. But even if countries deliver on their latest promises, the world is still on track for 2.3C to 2.5C of warming, according to the report. That's a slight improvement from a year ago, but not enough to change the overall outlook. Current policies, as opposed to pledges, would push warming even higher, to around 2.8C.
The report notes some progress since 2015, when the world was headed for about 4C of warming. However, global emissions rose 2.3% in 2024, reaching 57.7 gigatons of CO2 equivalent. The UN said President Trump's move to pull the US from the Paris Agreement would eliminate 0.1C of progress, with policy changes raising US emissions by 1 gigaton through 2030, per Politico. The findings arrive as countries prepare for next week's COP30 climate summit, where debates over how to accelerate and fund emissions cuts are expected to take center stage.
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