Johnson Faces Ironic Hurdle for Shutdown Vote

The Senate's passage of a measure to end the government shutdown means the heavier lift is over in DC—now it's onto the House. But while passage there is expected, it's no slam dunk, either. Here's where things stand:

• The math: House Speaker Mike Johnson has a two-vote margin in the chamber and thus can't afford many defections. But Punchbowl News counts GOP Rep. Thomas Massie as an almost guaranteed "no," with Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Victoria Spartz, and Warren Davidson as additional possible defectors.
• Democrats: On the other hand, Johnson may get some help from the Democratic side. The outlet counts five possibilities: Henry Cuellar, Jared Golden, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Vicente Gonzalez, and Susie Lee. The latter is from Nevada, whose two senators were among the eight Democrats to buck their party in the Senate.

• Bottom line: "I think we will," said Johnson when asked Monday if Republicans will be able to pass the measure, per Axios. The main factor in his favor is that President Trump has voiced his support, and it's unlikely that House Republicans will move against him. "We'll be opening up our country very quickly," Trump said Monday, per the New York Times.
• Odd challenge: Politico notes that one of the bigger immediate hurdles Johnson faces is getting members of Congress back to DC. They've been gone for more than 50 days, and now they are likely confronting an air-travel mess caused by the very shutdown they're trying to end. Johnson hopes to have a vote on Wednesday.