McCain Running in Place: Polls

Obama has a 96.7% chance of victory, 538 predicts
By Kevin Spak,  Newser Staff
Posted Oct 28, 2008 12:29 PM CDT
McCain Running in Place: Polls
Barack Obama talks on the phone with a potential voter at his campaign office in Pittsburgh, Monday, Oct. 27, 2008.   (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

John McCain isn’t gaining any ground in the polls, according to FiveThirtyEight, which pegs Obama’s odds of victory at 96.7% to McCain’s 3.3%. As of yesterday, polls predict a final electoral score of 351-187, numbers unchanged from the day before. National tracking polls showed minuscule moves in McCain’s direction, but that hasn’t shown up in state-by-state polling.

Obama, meanwhile, is picking up voters in solidly blue and, to a lesser extent, red states, widening his popular vote margin. Pollsters have also begun reaching a consensus about many battleground states. Missouri, North Carolina, and Florida appear up for grabs, but Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia are all leaning Obama’s way. And Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and Pennsylvania seem solidly blue. (Read more Election 2008 stories.)

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