Gay-Marriage Support Snowballing

Public support for gay marriage seems to be rapidly increasing based on an analysis of polling data dating back to 1988, according to FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver. According to a regression analysis, about 49% of the country probably now favors gay marriage, while 50% are opposed, which is “basically too close to call.” It also represents an immensely speedy move over the past 16 months.

The analysis is influenced by a new CNN poll, in which 52% of respondents said that gay and lesbian couples should have a constitutional right to marry, to 46% opposed. Among people under 50, support was close to 60%. The same was true among Democrats and Independents. Silver notes that the numbers have been moving more since gay rights groups shifted to demanding marriage equality, rather than civil unions, “probably because the secular justifications against it are generally quite weak.”