pollsters

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Only One Part of Polls Should Worry Democrats


Only One
Part of Polls
Should Worry
Democrats
OPINION
Nov 27, 2023 10:50 AM CST

Only One Part of Polls Should Worry Democrats

It's how Americans view the economy, writes pollster Mileah Kromer

(Newser) - Like a lot of political observers, Mileah Kromer doesn't think Democrats should be too worried about what Kromer calls "horse race polls" showing Donald Trump ahead of President Biden a year out from the election. But Kromer, who's director of the Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics...

Pollsters Don't Seem Very Confident Ahead of Midterms

Polls are looking up for Dems in all the same places they were in 2020, when they were wrong

(Newser) - If past performance is any indication, polls ahead of this year’s midterm elections may be setting Democrats up for another major letdown. That’s according not only to pundits but also the pollsters themselves, who according to Politico have been wringing their hands and tweaking their methods ever since...

Pollster Apologizes to New Jersey: 'I Blew It'

Monmouth's Patrick Murray acknowledges late poll was way off in governor's race

(Newser) - Less than a week before Election Day, Monmouth University put out a poll showing that New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy had a comfortable lead of 11 points over GOP challenger Jack Ciattarelli. The race turned out to be much, much closer—the AP has indeed called it for Murphy , but...

Democratic Pollsters: We Got It Wrong Again

5 firms admit 'major errors' in predicting 2020 outcome, have no definitive solution

(Newser) - Five of the Democratic Party's six biggest polling firms are admitting "major errors" in their 2020 polling data, with "no consensus on a solution." A Tuesday letter signed by ALG Research, Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, GBAO Strategies, Global Strategy Group, and Normington Petts describes a months-long effort...

Why the Polls May Have Got It Wrong
It's Another 'Disaster
for the Polling Industry'
THE RUNDOWN
Nov 4, 2020 2:09 PM CST

It's Another 'Disaster for the Polling Industry'

Pundits point to social desirability bias

(Newser) - With six states still to be called , much about the 2020 election is up in the air. What is clear is that President Trump did far better than most polls suggested he would, as also was the case in 2016. Surveys gave the impression of "an easy win for...

Why So Many Pollsters Were So Completely Wrong
Why So Many
Pollsters Were So
Completely Wrong
THE RUNDOWN
Nov 9, 2016 12:54 PM CST

Why So Many Pollsters Were So Completely Wrong

Some theories as to where it went off the rails

(Newser) - The prevailing question the morning after Donald Trump's stunning victory is: How did so many get it so wrong? An "absolutely unreal" "Chance of Winning Presidency" graphic on the New York Times' forecasting page Tuesday evening showed Trump ascending from a 20% chance of winning the White...

These Few Correctly Picked Trump, and Were Ignored
These Few Correctly Picked
Trump, and Were Ignored
the rundown
Nov 9, 2016 9:41 AM CST

These Few Correctly Picked Trump, and Were Ignored

Vindication for LAT/USC poll

(Newser) - One of the most common questions being asked Wednesday is how pollsters and pundits managed to be so wrong about Donald Trump. Well, not everybody was wrong:
  • The Los Angeles Times/University of South California tracking poll consistently had Trump in the lead through the final months, often to much derision.
...

'Polls Don't Matter,' Says Obama Pollster

Campaign's opinion boss to volunteers: Don't get discouraged

(Newser) - Poll fluctuations are no biggie because "at the end of the day, polls don't matter," says the very guy in charge of, well, polling for President Obama. "Polls will go up, polls will go down," Obama's head of opinion research, David Simas, told...

Pollster Saves Woman's Life With Well-Timed Call

Bobby Berlin went into diabetic shock on the phone

(Newser) - Who says pollsters aren't good for anything? Not Bobby Berlin. The New York City woman had just gotten a call asking how she felt about Michael Bloomberg when she went into diabetic shock, NBC New York reports. "Something just sounded off," says the pollster, a Marist College...

Pollster George Gallup Dead at 81
Pollster
George Gallup
Dead at 81
OBITUARY
Nov 24, 2011 2:49 AM CST

Pollster George Gallup Dead at 81

Gallup founder's son specialized in tracking religious beliefs

(Newser) - George Gallup Jr. has conducted his last poll. The renowned pollster, who helped run the polling organization his father founded for more than 50 years, has died of liver cancer at the age of 81, the New York Times reports. Gallup, who once considered becoming an Episcopalian priest and worked...

2010's Best, Worst Pollsters: Nate Silver
 Come 2012, 
 Follow These Polls 
nate silver
Nov 5, 2010 10:23 AM CDT

Come 2012, Follow These Polls

Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA tops for accuracy, finds Nate Silver

(Newser) - Now that the dust has settled, whose polls were the best predictors of the actual midterm results? Nate Silver ranks them by accuracy and party bias over the last 21 days of the election cycle. The most accurate, according to his calculations: Quinnipiac, which “showed little bias,” he...

Don't Trust Any Poll That Omits Cellphones
Don't Trust Any Poll That Omits Cellphones
Nate Silver
May 24, 2010 1:33 PM CDT

Don't Trust Any Poll That Omits Cellphones

They're ignoring 25% of the populace

(Newser) - Yeah, it's expensive, but pollsters need to start calling cellphones. According to the latest CDC data, 23% of US adults, or 25% of US households are cellphone-only, writes Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com . Add in “cellphone-mostly” households and that jumps to 40%—and it could be even higher by...

Why People Lie About Having Voted for Obama
Why People Lie About Having Voted for Obama
Analysis
Jun 19, 2009 2:25 PM CDT

Why People Lie About Having Voted for Obama

(Newser) - A lot of people are lying about having voted for President Obama. A recent Wall Street Journal poll gives Obama a 50%-39% edge over John McCain—a big bump over his actual 7% victory. A New York Times survey shows Obama winning with a nearly 2-to-1 margin. That’s a...

Pollsters: Our Predictions Could Be Off
Pollsters: Our Predictions Could Be Off
analysis
Oct 9, 2008 8:55 AM CDT

Pollsters: Our Predictions Could Be Off

Cell phones, turnout, and prejudice threaten to skew forecasts

(Newser) - Pollsters worry that a growing affinity for cell phones (most surveys rely on landlines), unspoken racial biases, and tough-to-predict turnout among young people and black people could skew their predictions come November, writes Mark Blumenthal in the National Journal. When pollsters "compare notes this year, worry is the prevailing...

Barr, Nader Each on 40+ States' Nov. Ballots

Best-known third-party candidates get 3.3% in polls, but experts say that may ebb

(Newser) - Voters in most states in the US will see Ralph Nader and Bob Barr on the presidential ballot, Politico reports. Nader made it in 45 states and the District of Columbia, though the independent missed Texas. Barr’s Libertarian bid made the ballot in 44 states. The two combined for...

Will Women Abandon Palin, Too?
 Will Women 
 Abandon 
 Palin, Too? 
ANALYSIS
Sep 14, 2008 5:58 PM CDT

Will Women Abandon Palin, Too?

What makes women shed their ideals to support Palin?

(Newser) - When Geraldine Ferraro joined Walter Mondale's ticket in 1984, Ronald Reagan got a boost from women voters who may have felt threatened by Ferraro's personal and professional success. Nearly 25 years later, the effect of Sarah Palin joining John McCain contrasts sharply with Ferraro's fortunes, and prompts Newsweek to take...

'Palin Factor' Levels Race
 'Palin Factor' Levels Race
Sep 10, 2008 3:10 AM CDT

'Palin Factor' Levels Race

McCain tied with Obama in latest poll

(Newser) - John McCain has erased Barack Obama's lead, transforming the presidential race to a statistical dead heat, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Obama's lead among women dropped from 10 to 4 points since August, which is largely attributed to Sarah Palin's popularity, reports MSNBC.

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